Historic Bitcoin Bottom Signal: Seen Only Once Before, the Rare Cycle Lasting 157 Days
Bitcoin futures yields falling below US Treasury yields are triggering a rare bottom signal in the cryptocurrency market seen only once before in history.
The cryptocurrency market is crossing a critical threshold that directly impacts investor risk appetite and capital allocation. According to Glassnode data, Bitcoin (BTC)‘s 3-month futures basis—the annualized yield derived from the difference between the futures price and the spot price—has been trending below the 2-year US Treasury yield for exactly 157 days. This continuous trend since February is profoundly shaking liquidity balances and investor strategies in the market.
This scenario is occurring for only the second time in crypto history for such an extended period. A similar situation previously occurred between August 2022 and January 2023, lasting exactly 160 days. That first instance in history ended when the market reached its cycle bottom. Current data shows that crypto yields lagging behind traditional and safe-haven Treasury yields is driving institutional investors toward lower-risk instruments.
Low Risk Appetite and Bottom Expectations in the Crypto Market
This divergence in yields is exerting direct pressure on market depth and trading volumes. Investors turning to Treasuries, seen as “risk-free yield,” is slowing down cash flow in the crypto market. This situation also negatively impacts the total open interest in the market and the density of order books. However, these data points are also being interpreted as a strong sign that the market is in oversold territory.
Experts point out that this rare pattern could be a bottom signal for the cryptocurrency market. If the past cycle repeats, a new bullish wave is expected to begin as the futures basis catches up to and surpasses Treasury yields. For now, the fact that investors prefer staying in safe havens suggests that pressure on the Bitcoin price may continue for a while, but a major reversal could be on the horizon.