New U.S. Rules for Leveraged Crypto Trading May Not Arrive Until 2028, Analyst Warns

TD Cowen analyst Jaret Seiberg said federal rules for leveraged crypto trading in the U.S. may not be finalized until early 2028, and that the election calendar and legal challenges could put the regulation’s future at risk.

According to The Block, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) published an advance notice of proposed rulemaking last week to develop a federal framework for leveraged and margined crypto trading. Jaret Seiberg, head of TD Cowen’s Washington Research Group, called the move positive for crypto platforms but emphasized that the main question is how long the process will take.

Initial proposal could come in 2027, final rule in 2028

According to Seiberg’s October 12 assessment, the CFTC could publish its proposal as early as the end of the first quarter or the beginning of the second quarter of 2027. Preparing the final rule could take until early 2028.

The analyst believes this timeline would push the work into the 2028 election cycle, increasing the risk that the rules may never be finalized. These dates are Seiberg’s projections for the process, not a binding timeline announced by the agency.

What could change for platforms?

According to Seiberg’s assessment, the new framework could require platforms to undergo proof-of-reserves audits and give the CFTC authority over state-licensed platforms. The effort takes a different approach from granting the agency direct and broad authority over spot crypto trading.

After comprehensive crypto legislation that would have granted the CFTC broad authority over the spot market failed to advance in its first vote in the U.S. Senate, the CFTC and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) took their own regulatory steps. However, Seiberg said these agencies’ efforts do not have the durability that legislation could provide.

Speeding up the process also carries risks

According to Seiberg, the CFTC moving up its timeline could create another obstacle: courts could halt the regulation on procedural grounds. The analyst said an accelerated process would increase this possibility, and that legal challenges could extend beyond 2028, even if the agency proceeds carefully.