Bernstein cut its 2026 profit outlook for Coinbase to a loss and lowered its revenue estimate by about one-third, but maintained its positive rating on the stock, pointing to new revenue streams.
In a report cited by The Block, Bernstein analysts updated their estimates for Coinbase, Robinhood and Circle ahead of the third-quarter earnings reports. They maintained their “Outperform” ratings on all three companies, signaling expectations that they will outperform the market, while prediction markets, derivatives and tokenization are increasingly taking the place of spot crypto trading in their growth outlooks.
Why did Coinbase’s profit estimate turn into a loss?
Analysts lowered their price target for Coinbase shares from $330 to $250, citing weak crypto trading volumes and a stalled recovery. The company’s 2026 revenue estimate was cut by about 32% to $5.5 billion. The team, which previously expected earnings of $5.97 per share, now forecasts a $2.60 loss.
The report said the calculations no longer include an assumption that crypto prices will rise. Spot trading volume is expected to remain flat at $150 billion in the third quarter, while stablecoin activity is expected to make the largest contribution to revenue growth.
Despite this, the potential revenue from new products is a key reason for maintaining the positive rating. Bernstein estimates that Coinbase could generate about $2 billion in revenue from prediction markets and derivatives in 2028. Its estimate at the beginning of the year was about $600 million. According to the Monday prices cited in the report, Coinbase shares were trading at just above $162, while their year-to-date loss had exceeded 31%.
Prediction markets could overtake crypto at Robinhood
Bernstein expects Robinhood to generate $1.7 billion in revenue from prediction markets and $1.6 billion from crypto trading in 2028. In the third quarter, contract volume tied to event outcomes is projected to rise 21% from the previous quarter to 16.4 billion contracts.
Total crypto trading volume at Robinhood and its subsidiary Bitstamp is expected to recover to about $50 billion; that figure would still be 38% below the same period last year. The Robinhood blockchain, which launched in July, reportedly generated about $90 billion in trading volume and $50 million in fees in the third quarter, with most of the activity coming from memecoin trading.
The $160 price target for Robinhood was maintained, while the report said the stock traded at $93.37 on Monday.
Circle seeks revenue beyond reserve interest
Bernstein raised its price target for USDC issuer Circle from $140 to $145. The change reflected the outlook for Arc token presales and reserve yields.
As the USDC supply fell to about $73 billion from $77 billion in the second quarter, reserve revenue is expected to decline. Nevertheless, total revenue in the third quarter is forecast to rise slightly to $770 million. According to analysts, Arc could give the company additional revenue streams beyond reserve interest through transaction fees and validator staking revenue.
Not investment advice.