The Quantum Alliance, formed by nine companies to address the quantum threat, estimates that 6.4 million BTC have publicly visible keys. The idea of freezing these assets to prevent them from being stolen in the future has divided experts.
According to CoinDesk, the alliance, announced on October 15, plans to develop joint security tests and guides for transitioning to quantum-resistant systems for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other blockchains. Its members include Hacken, Midnight Foundation, Quantus, and Postquant Labs.
At the center of the debate is 1.1 million BTC believed to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto. If a sufficiently powerful quantum computer can obtain private keys from public keys in the future, such assets could be stolen. Quantum computers available today are not capable of carrying out this attack.
Freeze or move Bitcoin to protect it?
Quantus CEO Christopher Smith believes that the first actor to reach the required capacity could seize coins at risk, potentially with the backing of a state. This possibility raises the question of how to protect Bitcoin that has not moved for a long time or can no longer be accessed by its owner.
Postquant Labs CTO Richard Carback favors moving the coins rather than freezing them. Carback also proposes an escrow structure through which owners could prove their ownership and reclaim their assets.
Bryn Bennett, revenue manager at The Vault, points out that custodians protect their own clients’ assets, but no party assumes the same responsibility for abandoned coins. According to Bennett, a freeze would reduce quantum risk while setting a precedent for property rights and neutrality in Bitcoin.
Binance founder Changpeng Zhao previously proposed freezing the Bitcoin attributed to Satoshi if it remained unmoved as quantum technology advances. Bitcoin developer Jameson Lopp has also raised the idea of restricting vulnerable coins. Those opposed argue that such an intervention could undermine Bitcoin’s principle of protection against seizure.
There’s a 2028 estimate, but no agreed timeline
The Quantum Alliance’s estimate of 6.4 million BTC covers assets whose public keys are already visible. There is no consensus on when the threat will become actionable.
Carback considers 2028 a realistic estimate for a computer capable of breaking current cryptography. Bennett says the exact timeline is unknown, and that the real issue is whether networks and custodians can transition in time if the threat arrives sooner than expected.
Transitioning to a quantum-resistant Bitcoin network could require changing the digital signatures that authorize transactions. This would require coordination among developers, miners, wallet providers, exchanges, and users. New signatures could also take up more space on the blockchain, potentially raising fees or reducing the number of transactions that can be processed.
So the debate is not limited to developing stronger encryption: how far Bitcoin’s ownership rules can be changed while protecting holders’ assets remains an open question.
Not investment advice.