Surprise Move by 3 Fed Members: Bitcoin Analysts Split Over Worst-Case Scenario
The Fed’s hawkish stance, despite keeping interest rates steady, has split Bitcoin analysts regarding future price movements.
While the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) decided to keep the policy rate steady in the range of 3.50% to 3.75%, the fact that three members at the meeting voted for a rate hike caused a surprise in the markets. Bitcoin (BTC) price maintained its flat course at around $64,000 levels following the decision, although experts are at opposite poles regarding the impact of this “hawkish stance” on cryptocurrencies. Fed Governor Kevin Warsh’s statement, “we do not have a soft inflation target,” further deepened market uncertainty.
Speaking to CoinDesk, DWF Labs partner Andrei Grachev describes this decision as the “worst-case scenario” for digital assets. According to Grachev, tight monetary policy and decreasing liquidity—meaning the contraction of cash flow in the market—will put pressure on Bitcoin by increasing borrowing costs. On the other hand, Sygnum Bank strategist Can-Luca Köymen argues that restrictive policy does not mean the fundamentals have worsened. Köymen states that the constructive stance for cryptocurrencies will continue if inflation remains manageable.
Major Divergence in Analysts’ Bitcoin Expectations
Bitget chief analyst Ryan Lee points out that the debate has now evolved from rate cuts to the question of “will the next step be a hike?” Lee predicts that institutional demand is strong enough to buy on dips, but the real pressure may be felt in assets like Nasdaq, where tech stocks are dominant, and gold. Stating that volatility in oil prices is tying the Fed’s hands, the analyst says the market will price in this uncertainty for a while longer.
The 21Shares macroeconomics unit warns that the real risk could occur during the critical meeting in September. It is noted that if inflation remains high, the Fed may be forced to make tougher decisions. Like the opposing arrows in the image, analysts cannot reach a full consensus on Bitcoin’s direction in light of ETF flows and macroeconomic data. It is predicted that the real test for investors will be their reactions in this new era of tightening liquidity conditions.