Bernstein’s $10 Trillion Forecast: Crypto Is Shifting the Balance on These Platforms!
Bernstein forecasts that the annual trading volume of prediction markets could reach $10 trillion in 2035, while noting that the share of crypto contracts on Kalshi has increased significantly this year.
According to a report by Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani, cited by The Block, the sector’s trading volume rose from approximately $50 billion for all of 2025 to approximately $300 billion in the first eight months of 2026. On these platforms, users buy and sell contracts on specific outcomes related to sports, politics, or financial assets.
Analysts say short-term crypto and commodity contracts, such as 15-minute Bitcoin markets, are contributing to growth. Crypto volume here refers not to direct purchases of Bitcoin or altcoins, but to trading in contracts based on outcomes related to these assets.
Crypto’s share on Kalshi approaches 20%
According to Bernstein, the share of crypto contracts in Kalshi’s trading volume rose from below 5% in January to approximately 20% in August. Volume in commodity contracts also rose from less than $2 million in 2025 to approximately $590 million by the end of August this year; $410 million of that occurred in August alone.
Kalshi’s share of volume across the sector rose from 35% in 2025 to approximately 60% in the first eight months of 2026.
On Polymarket, meanwhile, crypto contracts accounted for approximately 21% of global platform volume during the same period. Sports’ share rose from 39% in 2025 to 52%, while politics’ share fell from 32% to 22%. These figures show crypto’s current weight on Polymarket; the source does not provide crypto’s share for the previous period.
What is the real shift behind the $10 trillion expectation?
Bernstein’s model estimates the sector’s total volume for 2026 at approximately $410 billion. The $10 trillion forecast for 2035 refers to the annual trading volume of all prediction markets—not the companies’ valuations or the volume of crypto contracts alone.
Analysts expect the share of the financial assets category, which includes crypto, stock, and commodity contracts, to rise from 12% of total volume in 2025 to 49% in 2035. Sports’ share, meanwhile, is expected to decline from 61% to 38% over the same period. As a result, financial assets become the largest category in the model, surpassing sports. A decline in sports’ share does not mean that the transaction amount will also decrease.
Products that could support growth include contracts allowing users to trade on a single indicator, such as a company’s production, deliveries, or subscriber growth, rather than its stock price. Analysts also point to the expansion of perpetual futures beyond crypto into commodities and individual stocks.
Uncertainty remains on the regulatory front. Bernstein does not expect final clarity for sports prediction markets in the U.S. before 2027–2028 due to conflicting court rulings over federal derivatives oversight and states’ authority to regulate gaming. This date is not a finalized regulatory timeline but the analysts’ assessment.