Countdown to Bitcoin’s “Uptober”: Historically Averaged a 20% Gain!

As October, a month associated with bullish expectations for Bitcoin, approaches, CoinGlass’s chart shows that Octobers have historically delivered an average return of about 20%.

In a post on September 29, CoinGlass reminded followers that “Uptober” would begin in two days and published Bitcoin’s monthly returns chart. A blend of “up,” meaning a rise, and “October,” the English name for the month, the term is used in the crypto market to describe positive expectations for October.

The chart shows an average return of 19.92% for past Octobers and a median return of 14.71%. The median, equivalent to about 15%, is the highest among the months.

Why does October stand out?

The median is the value in the middle when annual returns are arranged from lowest to highest. As a result, an extraordinary surge in a single year affects the median less than it affects the arithmetic average. October’s top ranking by this measure stands out as one of the historical data points supporting the Uptober narrative.

November leads in average returns. November’s average is 41.12%, but its median remains at 8.81%. So November has the higher average, while October has the higher middle value.

The chart includes monthly data from 2013 through 2026, while the October comparison is based on the completed 2013–2025 period. Since October 2026 returns have not yet materialized, these figures are a summary of past performance, not a forecast for the new month.