Bitcoin Nears Breaking a 13-Year Streak: Why September’s Close Matters
If Bitcoin closes September with a gain after rising 25% in August, it will break a historical pattern in which every positive August since 2013 was followed by a negative September.
According to data cited by CoinDesk, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at around $84,000, up about 7% in September. With the monthly close approaching, holding on to those gains would carry historical significance beyond a single month’s rise.
Since 2013, Bitcoin has ended every August in positive territory, and it has lost value in every September that followed. This time, August’s strong rally has been followed by gains in September as well; whether the streak is broken will be clear at the month-end close.
Bitcoin is poised for a three-month winning streak
If the current picture holds, Bitcoin will have closed July, August and September with consecutive gains. The third-quarter return will also remain above 40%, marking the first positive quarter since the third quarter of 2025.
Next come the year’s final three months, which stand out for their historical performance. According to CoinGlass data, the fourth quarter has been Bitcoin’s strongest quarter historically, with an average return of about 77%. But this year, alongside historical averages, investors will have a volatile macroeconomic landscape to watch.
The bond market and two key developments will be in focus in the final quarter
As global bond yields rise, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is holding above 5.2%. The MOVE index, which measures bond market volatility, has also topped 100, nearing its highest levels of the year.
Oil staying above $90 a barrel is keeping inflation concerns alive. Gold, meanwhile, fell about 3% on Monday, dropping to just above $4,000 an ounce. These developments are among the factors that could affect investors’ risk appetite as the final quarter begins.
Anthropic’s reported plans for a November IPO are also on the market’s radar. The potential IPO, whose timing and size have yet to be finalized, could draw investor interest and capital toward a major technology company. The U.S. midterm elections, also scheduled for that month, are another development that could increase volatility through expectations around economic policy.
For Bitcoin, the first threshold will be holding on to its September gains through the close; after that, a historically strong final quarter will be put to the test under these macroeconomic conditions.