Bitcoin Option Moves Ahead of US Inflation: $70,000 Level Takes Center Stage
Bitcoin and Ether investors are setting up various option strategies in anticipation of both an upside move and sharp volatility ahead of US July inflation data.
The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released on Wednesday. Higher-than-expected data could strengthen the notion that the Fed might raise rates in September, increasing bond yields and pressure on risky assets; lower data could do the opposite. Economists expect headline inflation to rise 0.1% monthly and 3.4% annually, while core inflation, excluding food and energy, is expected to rise 0.2% monthly and 2.5% annually. The outcome could push Bitcoin out of the $62,000-$66,000 range it has maintained for weeks.
Ahead of this dual scenario, some investors on Deribit took upside positions with call options that profit if the price rises. Laevitas reported that the heaviest demand was concentrated in Bitcoin call options with a $70,000 strike price maturing on September 25, 2026. The total premium paid for these contracts was approximately $2.5 million, while the investors’ maximum loss remained limited to this premium.
$70,000 expectation stands out in Bitcoin options
TDX Strategies is focusing on the increase in volatility rather than the direction of the price. The firm suggested accumulating December expiry options due to implied volatility remaining at low levels and using a strategy called a “strangle” in Bitcoin and Solana (SOL). In this strategy, both call and put options are purchased for the same maturity, expecting the price to move strongly in either direction.
Jeff Anderson, an executive at STS Digital, stated that if Bitcoin breaks out of its current range, volatility could surge rapidly. September has historically been Bitcoin’s weakest month, with an average loss of about 4% since 2013. On-chain data, however, presented a more positive outlook. According to Nansen, net Ether outflows from exchanges totaled $49.7 million in the last 24 hours and $164.6 million over the past week. Conversely, large investors on Hyperliquid are carrying net short positions of $46.8 million in Bitcoin and $20.9 million in Ether.