Bitcoin has risen about 44% with days left in the third quarter. CoinGlass data shows that the final quarter of the year has historically delivered stronger returns.
According to a chart shared by CoinGlass on September 26, Bitcoin’s rise during the July-September period reached about 44%. This is the second-strongest third-quarter performance in the dataset, which dates back to 2013. The only stronger performance was the roughly 80% rise in 2017; however, since the third quarter of 2026 is not yet complete, the ranking is based on the data available when the chart was shared.
Why does the final quarter’s history stand out?
The chart shows that the October-December period outperforms the other quarters in terms of historical average and median returns. Across completed fourth quarters from 2013 to 2025, Bitcoin’s average return was about 77%, while the median was 48%. The median is the return in the middle when annual results are ranked from lowest to highest.
This data provides a historical basis for year-end expectations following a strong third quarter. However, the average does not mean that a similar rally occurs every year: extraordinary returns such as roughly 480% in 2013 and 215% in 2017 push the average higher.
Recent years also highlight this difference. Bitcoin rose about 55% and 48% in the final quarters of 2023 and 2024, respectively, but fell 15% in 2022 and 23% in 2025. Therefore, entering a historically strong period does not mean that the rally will necessarily continue in the final quarter of 2026.
Not investment advice.