Bitcoin’s $16 Billion Options Expiry on Friday Could Shift Price Dynamics!
Approximately $15.9 billion in Bitcoin options on Deribit expire on Friday. According to the exchange’s CEO, Luuk Strijers, this large expiry could increase short-term volatility by changing hedging trades that affect the price.
At 11:00 a.m. Turkey time on Friday, September 25, approximately $2.1 billion in Ethereum options will also expire, alongside Bitcoin contracts. Speaking to CoinDesk, Strijers said the amount on the Bitcoin side accounts for approximately 37 percent of total open BTC options positions on Deribit. This figure does not mean that the same amount of Bitcoin will be sold on the market; it represents the notional value of the contracts expiring.
Bullish contracts make up the majority
The put/call ratio for September Bitcoin contracts is 0.69. According to Strijers, this distribution reflects the predominance of positions established in anticipation of higher prices.
Fifty-five percent of the approximately $9.4 billion in expiring call option positions have intrinsic value because the current price is above the strike price. This alone is not enough to say that investors are net profitable, without accounting for the premiums paid.
Price-influencing flows could change after expiry
Strijers said that as Bitcoin rose in the $80,000–$87,000 range, market makers who had sold call options may have bought spot Bitcoin to hedge their risk. These hedging purchases may have contributed to the rally.
When expiry removes the need for the relevant hedges, it could weaken the effect that has kept the price near certain levels. According to Strijers, as a result, short-term volatility could increase and the price range in which Bitcoin trades could change. This assessment does not indicate a definite upward or downward direction.
The largest number of open contracts is at the $70,000 strike price. Call options are also concentrated at the $85,000, $90,000, $95,000, and $100,000 levels. Among the factors to watch after expiry are Bitcoin’s movement around $85,000 and whether positions are rolled over to October and December expiries.
