Bitcoin’s Nine-Day Streak Ends: How Much Buying Is Needed for a Rally?
As Bitcoin ETFs’ nine-day inflow streak comes to an end, Bitfinex analysts said the funds’ daily purchases would need to rise to about $190 million to overcome the selling pressure facing the price.
Bitcoin began the new quarter still stuck in the $82,000-$85,000 range, where it had been unable to break out for more than a week. After U.S. inflation came in below expectations on Wednesday, Bitcoin rose above $85,000, but the gains did not last. That same day, the direction of fund flows also shifted in spot Bitcoin ETFs, which had stood out in recent weeks for their purchases.
According to SoSoValue data cited by CoinDesk, the U.S.-traded funds saw net outflows of $148.7 million. This ended a nine-day inflow streak that brought in a total of $3.08 billion—the largest of the year in dollar terms.
Why are Bitcoin purchases falling short?
The slowdown in ETFs began before the outflows. Daily net inflows peaked at about $1 billion on September 21 and then gradually declined. The BAER indicator tracked by Bitfinex analysts also highlighted this weakening in demand.
The indicator divides the amount of Bitcoin ETFs buy in a trading day by the roughly 450 BTC miners produce daily. The ratio stood at 25.6 times on September 21, but fell to 1.8 times on September 29. In other words, the funds’ buying power relative to newly produced Bitcoin declined markedly.
A 1.39 million BTC hurdle stands in the way of a rally
The area analysts are watching is the $84,000-$86,500 range. At these prices, a total of 1.39 million BTC is held by investors approaching their breakeven point. If the price reaches this area, investors who have recovered their losses may be inclined to sell.
According to Bitfinex, the BAER needs to return to about 5 times to absorb this potential selling pressure. At current prices, that level corresponds to ETFs buying about $190 million worth of Bitcoin per day. So the factor analysts are watching is not just whether money flows back into the funds, but how strong and sustained those inflows will be.
The bond market is also adding pressure
Alex Kuptsikevich, chief analyst at FxPro, said continued selling in the bond market poses a risk to all markets. He warned that this pressure could soon trigger selling in other assets as well.
Kuptsikevich noted that turbulence in traditional financial markets has benefited cryptocurrencies in the past, but said it is impossible to predict when investors will shift from caution to panic.