Chilling 2029 Warning for Bitcoin from Google and IBM: Cracking Encryption Is Now 20 Times Easier

The risk of quantum computers breaking encryption systems has become a priority threat for the cryptocurrency sector, as “Q-Day” predictions have been moved forward to 2029.

While the cryptocurrency world sits at the center of technological revolutions, the security risks posed by quantum computers are reaching a new dimension. Experts state that due to their decentralized structures, digital assets act as the “canary in the coal mine” against this threat, and the first attacks will be seen in this field. Quantum Xchange CEO Eddy Zervigon emphasizes that quantum-based attacks will target financial networks and that cryptocurrencies could be the first casualties in this process.

Work by giants like IBM and Google shows that the quantum threat is closer than previously thought. While IBM CEO Arvind Krishna points to 2029 as a critical date for commercial quantum computers, Google researchers announced that the number of qubits required to break Bitcoin (BTC) encryption has dropped below 500,000. This figure is 20 times lower than previous estimates, revealing the scale of the danger. The White House’s goal to develop a powerful quantum computer by 2028 further accelerates the process.

The Real Danger for Bitcoin: Governance Speed

According to analysis by Deutsche Digital Assets, Bitcoin’s primary vulnerability is the slowness of its decision-making mechanisms rather than its technical infrastructure. While major banks can quickly update their systems with a board decision, an upgrade on the Bitcoin network requires miners to reach a 90 percent consensus. The resistance experienced during the 2017 SegWit process, which led to forks like Bitcoin Cash and Bitcoin Gold, proves how challenging the transition to quantum security could be.

The threat is not limited to a future moment of attack; data is being collected today through the “harvest now, decrypt later” strategy. Attackers plan to decrypt the encrypted data they seize today once quantum power reaches sufficient levels. This situation shows that quantum risk is a process based on decrypting data before it loses its value, rather than a sudden event.