Sherrod Brown, against whom crypto-backed political groups have spent more than $100 million over the past two years, could create new obstacles for crypto legislation if he returns to the Senate and Democrats win the majority.
With the November 3 elections approaching in the U.S., the Senate race in Ohio is drawing attention from the crypto industry. According to CoinDesk’s analysis, former senator Sherrod Brown is narrowly ahead of incumbent Jon Husted in the polls, though the margin is within the margin of error in most surveys.
Kalshi data cited in the analysis puts Brown’s chances of returning to the Senate at 68%. The same probability is shown in a separate market on whether Democrats will win a Senate majority. These are probability prices on a prediction market, not vote shares.
Key seats for crypto legislation
When Brown previously led the Senate Banking Committee, he was reluctant to advance crypto bills. In the two years since he left the Senate, a major stablecoin bill has passed and legislation to regulate the structure of the crypto market has made progress.
If Democrats win the majority, Elizabeth Warren is expected to become chair of the Banking Committee. If Brown also wins, he could take an influential role on a committee with a say in crypto legislation, such as the Agriculture Committee, which oversees derivatives markets. However, because his election defeat interrupted his seniority, his party may need to make an exception to appoint him to such a role.
The risk here is not just the number of senators who would vote against crypto. Committee chairs can decide which bills are considered and when. Even if there are Democrats open to compromise in discussions over the Clarity Act, the process could become more difficult if the people setting the agenda are opposed to the bill.
About $63 million allocated this year
According to an analysis based on federal election filings, Fairshake allocated about $56 million this year to prevent Brown from being elected. Together with the $7.2 million from the political action committee of the Winklevoss twins, the total for this election reaches about $63 million. Adding the roughly $40 million Fairshake spent against Brown in 2024 brings the total across the two election cycles to more than $100 million.
This strategy is also being debated within the crypto industry. Dennis Porter, head of the Satoshi Action Fund, views damaging relationships with Democrats who could regain power as a strategic mistake, particularly when support from both parties is needed for lasting regulation.
Adrian Wall, head of the Digital Sovereignty Alliance, argues that this spending does not represent the entire crypto community. Wall says Brown should not judge developers, small businesses, and users by the advertising budgets of a few major donors.
We have previously covered the political backlash generated by crypto-backed election spending. With two days until the election, Ohio’s race is drawing attention because Brown’s possible return could affect the legislative agenda through committee leadership.
Not investment advice.