Key Condition for Bitcoin to Climb Above $96,000: This Signal Has Appeared Before!

According to CryptoQuant analysis, Bitcoin holding above active investors’ cost basis could support another rally toward the upper band around $96,500.

CryptoQuant’s analysis focuses not just on Bitcoin reclaiming a threshold, but on that level turning into support as it recovers. The “Trader On-chain Realized Price,” which tracks the estimated cost basis of active traders, is around $68,900, while the indicator’s upper band is around $96,500.

Bitcoin trading above the cost basis indicates that this group of investors is back in profit overall. But the key test for whether the rally can continue is whether buyers can defend this area during any potential pullbacks.

The same threshold featured in past rallies

The analysis points to similar periods in 2019, 2020, and early 2023. In those cases, the price first reclaimed investors’ cost basis, then moved toward the upper band and tested the cost-basis area during subsequent pullbacks. Holding the former resistance as support strengthened the bullish outlook.

Two scenarios that could strengthen or weaken the rally

If Bitcoin retreats to the cost-basis area and then rises again, it could indicate that new buying is absorbing selling by investors nearing breakeven. According to the analysis, this would strengthen the possibility of another move toward the upper band.

By contrast, if the price remains below the cost basis and fails to reclaim it, that could indicate that selling pressure is outweighing demand. In that scenario, the recovery would become more fragile.

Approaching the upper band could also prompt profit-taking, as investors may be more inclined to realize gains the further the price rises above cost basis. Because both bands change along with investors’ cost basis, $96,500 is not a fixed target but a dynamic reference area tracked in the analysis.