Rare Bitcoin Close Seen Only 14 Times in 13 Years: Historical 6-Month Median Return at 85%

Glassnode noted that Bitcoin’s (BTC) yesterday 5.8-sigma close was only the 14th time a 5+ sigma upside close has occurred since 2013, while highlighting that half of similar events took place in a low-volatility environment and subsequent median returns were 4.8% in one week, 11.8% in one month, 15.1% in three months, and 84.8% in six months.

These figures show the historical median of 14 occurrences recorded since 2013 and do not constitute a definitive future prediction. The median refers to the value in the middle of the results. Glassnode stated that while a similar close in February was a recovery following a 14% drop the previous day, yesterday’s close lacked such a post-crash baseline.

The sigma measurement describes how unusual a daily move is compared to typical price volatility over the last 30 days. Therefore, closes at the 5+ sigma level are among the rarest movements in the Bitcoin market.

Glassnode’s 180-day tracking chart shows that performances following upward moves of over five sigmas are distributed across a wide range, while the median line of the low-volatility group remained in positive territory at the end of the tracking period.

Median Returns Climb Following Rare Bitcoin Closes

According to Glassnode’s historical table, Bitcoin’s median performance following these rare closes was 4.8% in one week, 11.8% in one month, and 15.1% in three months. The six-month median result was recorded at 84.8%.

In Glassnode’s periodic return series, the positive daily performance bar in the final section rose significantly compared to most historical daily bars. These rates are considered a statistical summary of the 14 past events, not a guarantee for the future.