Rare Deep Stress Phase in Bitcoin: Critical Indicator Hits Current Cycle Low

While Bitcoin (BTC) enters a deep stress zone as a critical sell-side risk indicator drops to extreme lows, this situation presents an opportunity for long-term investors, though a local bottom has yet to be confirmed.

The leading cryptocurrency Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading around the $62,000 level, trending approximately 50% below its October 2025 peak. While this market stagnation shakes investor confidence, technical data proves that the market is undergoing a very rare consolidation phase. In particular, the Adaptive Sell-side Risk Ratio, an indicator that measures sell-side risks, has dropped to one of the lowest levels of the current cycle.

According to CryptoQuant data, this indicator has fallen to the 0.031 level, placing it in the 3rd percentile. This technical data shows that the indicator is at a value lower than 97% of the days since April 2024. This “deep stress” zone, where the profit and loss balance of the market supply is severely disrupted, marks a period where participant confidence has hit rock bottom. Remaining below the 25th percentile since the end of January, the data has been trending even below the 5% average for the last two months, highlighting how painful the market repricing process has been.

Past Cycles and the Search for a Bottom for Bitcoin

Looking at historical data, such extremely low risk levels typically appear in the final stages of bear markets. This outlook, which shows similarities to the cycle ends in 2018-2019 and 2022-2023, indicates that the long-term risk/reward profile has improved in favor of investors. However, experts warn that this data should not be read directly as a “local bottom” signal.

In similar past periods, while the indicator continued to stay at bottom levels for months, the Bitcoin (BTC) price fluctuated within a wide range and occasionally recorded new lows. Although the stress area in the current charts offers an accumulation opportunity, market pressure is expected to dissipate completely for the price to recover. Therefore, while being within a strategic accumulation zone, the possibility that the price may remain under pressure for some time remains on the table.