TD Cowen Sees Bitcoin at $280K, Warns Strategy Gains May Be Limited
TD Cowen forecasts Bitcoin will reach $280,000 in 2029 but left its target for Strategy shares unchanged, saying the company’s financing structure could limit shareholder gains.
According to a report cited by The Block, TD Cowen analysts Lance Vitanza and Jonnathan Navarrete maintained their $260 price target and “Buy” rating for Strategy (MSTR) despite raising their forecast for Bitcoin. Behind this divergence are the company’s debt, preferred stock, and the dilutive effect of new financing.
Year-end and 2029 outlook for Bitcoin
The firm’s updated model projects Bitcoin at about $109,000 by the end of 2026 and $280,000 in 2029. On Thursday, when the article was prepared, Bitcoin was trading at about $81,300 and was down roughly 9% since the start of the year.
This outlook offers a more optimistic year-end view than QCP Capital’s base-case scenario of $80,000–$90,000 for the final quarter.
Why might Strategy shareholders not benefit as much?
According to TD Cowen, a rise in Bitcoin’s price could strengthen Strategy’s earnings potential, but how much of that benefit flows through per MSTR share depends on the company’s capital structure. New share issuance dilutes existing owners’ stakes, while debt and the rights of preferred stockholders are also factored into the calculation.
The analysts specifically point to the rights of preferred stockholders, including those holding STRC, STRF, and STRD, which take priority over those of common MSTR shareholders. When these obligations are taken into account, growth in the company’s total Bitcoin holdings may not translate into an equally strong increase on a per-share basis.
Strategy is using some of the money it raises to build a cash reserve and support its preferred stock. While this approach may contribute to future financing and Bitcoin purchases, it reduces the amount currently allocated directly to buying Bitcoin.
Price target still implies 73% upside
Strategy shares had fallen about 2.5% to $150 at the time of the report. TD Cowen’s unchanged $260 target represents approximately 73% upside potential from that level.
According to Saylor Tracker data, the company’s valuation relative to its net asset value has recovered from 0.63 times in June to about 1 times. The company’s 848,000 BTC holdings carry about $4.5 billion in unrealized gains. The report’s central distinction is how much of those total asset gains can be passed on to shareholders.