Is Bitcoin’s Drop a Buying Opportunity? Analyst Examines Five Cycles and Reveals Key Levels
An analysis published on CryptoQuant compared Bitcoin’s latest decline with the previous five bull cycles, highlighting the area around $80,000 and the $74,000–$75,000 range for gradual buying.
Bitcoin fell from $87,027 on October 5 to $80,404 on October 9, losing approximately 7.6 percent of its value. The analysis compares this move with pullbacks following peaks in bull cycles.
The latest decline is nearly in line with the approximately 7.6 percent average in the 2022–2025 cycle. When earlier cycles are also taken into account, larger pullbacks stand out. This difference underpins the analyst’s assessment of both the current price area and lower levels to watch if the decline continues.
How Large Were the Declines in Previous Bull Cycles?
The analysis lists the average pullbacks in each cycle as follows:
- 2010–2011: Approximately 18.4 percent
- 2011–2013: Approximately 21.7 percent
- 2015–2017: Approximately 10.9 percent
- 2018–2021: Approximately 19.4 percent
- 2022–2025: Approximately 7.6 percent
The study puts the average decline across all five cycles at 14.39 percent. Although declines in the latest cycle have been more limited, some past events saw drops well above this average.
Where Does the $74,500 Estimate Come From?
Applying the historical decline of 14.39 percent cited in the study to the latest peak of $87,027 produces a level of approximately $74,500. The analyst uses this calculation as a historical reference if the decline continues.
Based on the milder pullbacks in the latest cycle, the analyst says gradual accumulation around $80,000 could be considered, and believes the amount of buying could be increased if the price falls to the $74,000–$75,000 range. The recommended approach is to spread purchases across different price zones rather than assume the price will bottom at a single level.