Can Bitcoin Return to $126,000? CryptoQuant Reveals a Critical Condition!

According to an analysis shared by CryptoQuant, a Bitcoin valuation indicator has moved back above the accumulation zone. The analysis points to a critical threshold the indicator has yet to cross for a return to the $126,000 peak scenario.

The post said the 30-day moving average of the MVRV indicator moved out of the accumulation zone for the second time in 2026. The indicator is renewing its May peak and moving toward its highest level of the year. This comparison relates to the indicator, not directly to the price of Bitcoin.

According to CryptoQuant’s assessment, the indicator traded in this range for about six months in 2026. The analysis said this zone has historically coincided with periods of heavy accumulation, which were followed by strong returns. However, this historical relationship does not mean a new rally is certain.

What condition does the $126,000 scenario depend on?

The threshold being monitored in the analysis is approximately 1.62, the indicator’s peak this year. According to the commentary shared by CryptoQuant, crossing it would be considered confirmation that the bear market has reversed. In that scenario, the main price target would be the previous all-time high of $126,000.

1.62 is not a Bitcoin price; it is a threshold value for the MVRV indicator. Although the indicator has moved out of the accumulation zone, the analysis’s second required condition has not yet been met. Therefore, $126,000 is not the result of a breakout that has already occurred or a definite price forecast; it is a target tied to the indicator surpassing its yearly peak.