Critical Warning for Bitcoin Rally: Futures Demand Rising, Spot Demand Still Negative

CryptoQuant reported that the current movement in Bitcoin’s price is not receiving sufficient support from the spot market and that futures-driven rallies may not be sustainable.

According to a post by Ki Young Ju from CryptoQuant, the rise in Bitcoin price is currently being driven largely by the futures market. While open interest on the futures side is increasing, on-chain data shows that spot demand remains net negative. This divergence indicates that the market is relying more on derivative contract demand rather than direct buying.

In the analysis, futures demand is measured by the change in open interest, while spot demand is measured by the change in apparent demand. Apparent demand refers to the difference between Bitcoin production and the change in supply that has not moved for over a year. When the decrease in passive supply for over a year exceeds production, demand increases; otherwise, it weakens. CryptoQuant’s chart comparing 30-day total changes shows that futures demand (purple areas) and spot demand (gray areas) diverge periodically. Comparison with the black price line indicates that sharp jumps in futures demand may not be permanent when spot support remains weak.

Bitcoin Rally Weakens Without Spot Demand

Ki Young Ju emphasized that despite ongoing ETF inflows and Saylor’s purchases, on-chain apparent demand has still not recovered. He noted that similar futures-led rallies seen in April eventually faded when support from the spot market failed to materialize.

According to the analyst, both spot and futures demand must strengthen together for a sustainable rally. Pointing out that both types of demand recovered during the periods when previous bear markets ended, CryptoQuant warned about the sustainability of price movements based solely on an increase in open interest.