Galaxy Research says selling pressure has eased and argues that Bitcoin’s bottom is behind it, while also identifying the price condition that could call its bullish view into question.
In a report cited by The Block, Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy, pointed to a recovery in the technical outlook and a slowdown in activity among long-dormant wallets. Thorn says the current period offers an attractive opportunity to buy and hold Bitcoin.
According to the October 26 price data cited in the article, Bitcoin was trading above $80,000 but remained 36% below its record of approximately $126,000 in October 2025.
A technical shift after 44 weeks
According to Thorn’s data, Bitcoin closed above its 50-week moving average for five consecutive weeks in the period through October 18. This streak followed 44 weeks in which the price had been below that average.
The 200-week moving average was also tested during the decline in late June. The lowest weekly close of that period was 4.7% below this long-term level. Galaxy views the subsequent recovery as one of the arguments supporting its view that the bottom is in.
Bitcoin moved from old wallets has declined
According to Galaxy data, the monthly average of Bitcoin moved from wallets untouched for at least five years fell from 67,000 BTC in 2024 to 47,000 BTC in 2025, and then to 34,000 BTC in 2026.
A total of 1.11 million BTC from this age group has moved since October 2024. The firm says a significant portion of the supply has been absorbed by Bitcoin exchange-traded funds and the Bitcoin treasuries of publicly traded companies; it also interprets the slowdown in activity from old wallets as a reduction in selling pressure.
The report also cites U.S. debt and budget deficits as reasons in Bitcoin’s favor. Galaxy argues that federal debt reaching $40.44 trillion and borrowing for AI investments are strengthening the search for protection against currency depreciation.
The condition that could change Galaxy’s view
The threshold Thorn points to is the 50-week moving average, which the report puts at $76,540. A weekly close below this level, followed by a failure to reclaim it within one month, is cited as a condition that could call the firm’s bullish view into question.
The report also assesses AI-powered attacks and quantum risks. Galaxy stresses that recent crypto thefts have targeted exchanges, service providers, devices, or users rather than the Bitcoin protocol. The firm also notes that no quantum computer capable of breaking Bitcoin’s cryptography exists yet, and points to work on quantum-resistant updates.
Not investment advice.