US Crypto Bill Stalls in Senate: Will Stablecoin Rewards Continue?
According to Bernstein, the failure of the Clarity Act to advance in the Senate means that rewards offered by platforms like Coinbase on idle stablecoin balances will continue for now, shifting the US regulatory agenda toward the SEC and CFTC.
The legislative process for the Clarity Act, designed for comprehensive crypto regulation in the US, has entered a state of uncertainty after failing to garner the necessary support in a Senate procedural vote. Bernstein analysts believe that with the bill’s lack of progress, the SEC and CFTC will take center stage in drafting US crypto rules.
In the vote, 49 senators voted in favor and 50 against for the bill to advance. The required threshold was 60 votes. Bernstein analysts noted that the two agencies could conduct rapid and comprehensive rulemaking to make up for the time lost in legislative negotiations.
Bill Fails to Block Stablecoin Rewards
The compromise text of the Clarity Act proposed banning rewards on idle stablecoin balances and linking yields to transactions performed by the customer. Since the bill did not advance, Bernstein assessed that platforms like Coinbase could continue offering rewards for idle balances for the time being.
Bernstein analysts stated they do not expect major changes in this area for now, given the current framework of stablecoins under the GENIUS Act. However, proposals from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) contain an approach that could eventually deem it problematic for an issuer to pay an affiliate that then provides yield to stablecoin holders.
According to StoneX analysts, this issue could be brought to court after the GENIUS Act takes effect in January 2027.
New Regulatory Focus Areas for the SEC and CFTC
Bernstein expects the SEC and CFTC to focus primarily on the classification of network-specific crypto tokens, decentralized finance (DeFi), and self-custody infrastructure. Tokenization rules allowing stocks to be traded on the blockchain are also among the upcoming agenda items.
Analysts also predicted faster approval processes for perpetual futures based on real-world assets and potential coordination between the two agencies on single-stock perpetual futures. It was also stated that rules regarding the classification of federal sports event contracts as “swaps” could change.
StoneX analysts noted that the likelihood of the bill advancing during this Congressional term has dimmed. Pointing out that only 14 working days remain for the Senate before the campaign period, analysts cited Senator Cynthia Lummis’s assessment that the next realistic opportunity might not emerge until 2030.
The Polymarket odds for the bill’s chances of passing in 2026 dropped to 16% ahead of the vote. This rate stood at 82% in February.