Public Bitcoin Miners Pivot to AI: CoinShares Expects No Return
CoinShares does not expect public miners that have pivoted to AI infrastructure to return, even if the Bitcoin price recovers.
While Bitcoin has risen to approximately $77,000, this recovery may not be enough to reverse the shift of mining companies into the field of artificial intelligence (AI) and high-performance computing. CoinShares expects this transition to continue due to long-term AI leases and higher profitability.
The capacity planned to depart from public miners reaches at least 35 EH/s. This amount corresponds to 4.7 percent of the Bitcoin network’s total processing power of approximately 750 EH/s. In its second-quarter report, CoinShares stated that this capacity exit is not yet a realized drop in the network hashrate but reflects the companies’ planned change in direction.
AI Infrastructure Is More Profitable Than Mining
According to CoinShares’ estimates, the profitability of AI infrastructure per megawatt for these companies is approximately $1.5 million, while it is around $500,000 for Bitcoin mining. This roughly threefold profitability in favor of AI explains why some companies are turning to long-term agreements even if the price recovers.
Some operators have committed their facilities to leases exceeding 15 years for AI and high-performance computing. CoinShares does not expect this capacity to return to mining even if Bitcoin recovers.
Keel completely stopped Bitcoin mining in June. IREN is expected to exit the sector by the end of 2026, while Cipher Digital is expected to exit by the end of 2027. TeraWulf is also reducing its remaining 145 megawatts of mining capacity.
The rise in Bitcoin’s price may encourage some companies to set up additional mining capacity. However, CoinShares considers that this possibility may be limited to companies like Riot, MARA, HIVE, and Bitdeer, which maintain more flexible business models. While the average cash cost of producing one Bitcoin in the second quarter reached approximately $75,500, Bitcoin ended the quarter at $58,400. In June, the revenue miners earned from a single unit of computing power also dropped to an all-time low of $27.70/PH/s/day.